【导读】东方汇理资管投资研究院主管Monica DEFEND: 中国发展人工智能以造福普通人

　　10月24日，欧洲最大资产管理机构东方汇理资产管理投资研究院主管Monica DEFEND 在“外滩年会”期间接受本报专访时表示，中国发展人工智能以造福普通人。地缘政治压力犹存，央行储备多元化趋势持续，在多重因素作用下，她认为黄金仍有一定的上行空间。她认为中国的房地产行业失衡正在逐步修正，由投资驱动向消费驱动的转型也是渐进过程。

　　Monica DEFEND, Head of Amundi Investment Institute: China Develops AI to Benefit Ordinary People

　　On October 24, Monica DEFEND, Head of Amundi Investment Institute, the think tank of European largest asset manager, told China Fund News in an exclusive interview during the Bund Summit this year that China is developing artificial intelligence to benefit ordinary people. She noted that geopolitical pressures persist and that central banks continue to diversify their reserves. Against this backdrop, she believes that gold still has some upside potential. She also commented that Chinas real estate sector is gradually correcting its imbalances, and that the shift from investment-driven growth to consumption-driven growth is a gradual process.

美联储年内将降息两次

The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice more this year

　　中国基金报：美国劳动力市场出现裂痕，你对美联储未来12个月的降息轨迹有什么看法？

　　Monica DEFEND：当前美联储面临多重因素的交织，处境相当艰难。从基本面来看，我们预计美联储在今年年底前可能降息两次，明年或再降息两次，最终利率有望降至约3.50%，略高于市场普遍共识。如果经济增长放缓进一步影响到劳动力市场，这将会波及消费端。虽然美国经济上半年增速超出市场预期，主要受益于资本支出超级周期，但我们的货币政策判断依然立足于基本面。我们认为美联储可能承受市场期待其能够推出更大幅度降息举措的压力。

　　CHINA FUND NEWS: With signs of cracks emerging in the U.S. labor market, what is your view on the Federal Reserves rate-cut trajectory over the next 12 months?

　　Monica DEFEND: Multiple factors are at play, and the Fed is in a rather difficult position. From a fundamental perspective, we justify the Fed may cut rates twice from now until the end of the year, and expect possibly another two times next year, bringing the terminal rate to around 3.50%, slightly above market consensus. If the economic slowdown begins to affect the labor market, it will further impact consumption. Although the U.S. economy grew faster than expected in the first half of the year, mainly benefiting from the capital expenditure supercycle, our monetary policy view remains grounded in fundamentals. We have a perception that the Fed may face pressure of expectations on larger rate cuts.

　　中国基金报：杰罗姆·鲍威尔是否应该担心他的声誉？他是否应向市场表明美联储的独立性完好无损？这种心态将如何影响他的决策？

　　Monica DEFEND：中央银行独立性对于稳定通胀预期至关重要。如果美联储无法保持独立，衰退风险将随之升高。不过，我在上周参加国际货币基金组织（IMF）会议上了解到，市场并未真正担心美联储的独立性。虽然相关讨论频繁，但更多是观念上的担心，并非实际层面的忧虑。目前来看，这确实给美联储带来挑战，但当前阶段对市场并未产生实质性影响。

　　我们预计最终利率略高于市场共识，但即使如此，市场普遍也认为利率会保持在3%以上，而不是2%或1%。债券市场受到政府密切关注。例如，10年期国债收益率如果维持在4%左右，经济影响仍可控；一旦升至4.5%～4.75%，美国政府就会开始警觉；而超过5%时，政府反应将会非常强烈。因此，市场在货币政策制定过程中，实际上发挥了“护栏”作用。

　　CHINA FUND NEWS: Should Jerome Powell be concerned about his legacy? Should he reassure the market that the Federal Reserves independence remains intact? How might this mindset influence his decisions?

　　Monica DEFEND: Central bank independence is crucial for keeping inflation expectations anchored. If the Fed cannot maintain its independence, the risk of a recession rises. However, as I observed at last week‘s International Monetary Fund (IMF) meeting, the market is not genuinely worried about the Fed’s independence. While it is discussed, this is more a matter of perception than a real concern. Current indications show that this poses a challenge for the Fed, but it does not have a material impact on the market at this stage.

　　Our forecast for the terminal rate is slightly above market consensus, but even the market consensus is above 3%, not 2% or 1%. The bond market is always under government scrutiny. For example, if the 10-year Treasury yield stays around 4%, the economic impact is manageable; if it rises to 4.5%～4.75%, the U.S. government starts to become concerned; and if it exceeds 5%, there would be a strong governmental reaction. The market thus plays a sort of ‘guardrail’ role in monetary policy decisions.

市场定价并未反映美联储的独立性问题

The market has not priced in concerns over the Feds independence

　　中国基金报：有人可能将黄金的强劲走势部分归因于对美联储独立性的担忧，你怎么看？

　　Monica DEFEND：推动黄金价格上涨的因素既有周期性，也有结构性。从结构性来看，各国央行多元化储备的趋势已延续多年，这一进程并未放缓。俄乌问题等地缘冲突正在重塑市场格局，而人口结构的变化也持续对通胀产生影响。周期性方面，近期散户投资者的大量流入加剧了金价的短期波动。

　　黄金历来是投资组合中的有效对冲资产，既能分散风险，也能对冲地缘政治不确定性。在当前周期下，黄金仍有进一步上涨空间。我们预期三年内黄金现货价格目标为每盎司5000美元，并计划在投资组合中长期持有黄金。

　　CHINA FUND NEWS: Some may attribute gold‘s strong performance partly to concerns over the Fed’s independence. What is your take on it?

　　Monica DEFEND: Multiple forces are driving gold prices, including both cyclical and structural factors. On the structural side, central banks have long been diversifying their reserves, a process that continues. The Russia-Ukraine war may also be reshaping market dynamics, and demographic trends continue to influence inflation. On the cyclical side, recent inflows from retail investors have increased short-term volatility in gold prices.

　　Gold has consistently served as an effective hedge in investment portfolios—sometimes for risk diversification, sometimes for protection against geopolitical risks. In the current cycle, gold still has further upside potential. We have a three-year target for the spot price of gold at $5,000 per ounce and plan to hold it long-term in portfolios.

　　中国基金报：你提到人们可能不必过分担心美联储的独立性，这是否意味着尽管特朗普总统采取了一些行动，美联储的决策机制依然稳健？

　　Monica DEFEND：我并不是说完全不用担心，只是目前市场并未将相关风险纳入定价。这正是市场数据所反映的现状。美联储独立性面临的主要风险，实际上在于通胀失控及通胀预期的偏离，这些情况不仅会削弱监管与控制体系，还可能带来严重后果。因此，保持决策独立性至关重要。

　　CHINA FUND NEWS: You mentioned that people should not worry about the Fed‘s independence. Does this mean that, despite actions by President Trump, the Fed’s decision-making framework remains robust?

　　Monica DEFEND: Im not saying there is no cause for concern, only that the market has not priced in the risk. That is what current market data indicate. The main risk to independence lies in the potential for runaway inflation and unanchored inflation expectations, which could undermine regulatory and control mechanisms and have serious consequences. Therefore, maintaining independence remains critically important.

关于企业和消费者如何分担关税负担，企业盈利数据会给出线索

　　Corporate earnings data may provide clues on how tariffs are shared between companies and consumers

　　中国基金报：自特朗普最近宣布关税以来，市场似乎相当平静，为什么会这样？

　　Monica DEFEND：当前，市场已适应这种不确定性。关税的具体规模和最终效果仍不明朗。企业通过前置库存和供应链调整来应对，这可能对经济增长和价格走势产生结构性影响，但影响的时间和范围因行业和国家而异。事实上，几乎每个地区都在通过产业和财政政策调整来增强战略资源配置和战略自主。此外，关税也带来了新的机遇，例如过去12至18个月，亚洲区域贸易回暖，欧洲也出现了类似趋势。

　　至于消费者究竟要承担多少关税成本，这一问题还需时间才能明确。当前，市场在新的全球格局下表现出一定的韧性，例如，美元在特朗普关税政策刚出台时贬值，部分抵消了关税对GDP的负面影响。现阶段，美国企业整体利润率依然较高，成本上升尚未完全转嫁给终端消费者，这也在企业财报数据中得到印证。

　　CHINA FUND NEWS: Since President Trumps recent tariff announcements, the market seems relatively calm. Why is that?

　　Monica DEFEND: The market has become accustomed to this type of uncertainty. In reality, we still do not know the final scale or effectiveness of the tariffs. Companies are responding through front-loaded inventories and supply chain adjustments, which may have structural effects on economic growth and price dynamics, though the timing and scope vary by industry and country. In fact, almost in very region both industrial fiscal policies are aiming to more strategic allocation of resources and strategic autonomy.

　　Tariffs also bring new opportunities. For example, over the past 12 to 18 months, regional trade has rebounded in Asia, with similar trends observed within Europe.

　　As for the extent to which consumers bear the cost of tariffs, it will take more time to get a clear picture. The market has shown some resilience under the new global order. For instance, the initial depreciation of the U.S. dollar has partially offset the GDP drag from tariffs. Currently, U.S. companies generally maintain high profit margins and have not fully passed higher costs on to end consumers—a trend confirmed by corporate earnings data.

中美会成为两大科技巨头

China and the U.S. will be the Two Technology Giants

　　中国基金报：欧洲受益于美国例外主义削弱，你认为这一趋势可持续吗？

　　Monica DEFEND：我们需要明确区分经济例外主义与科技例外主义。标普500指数的表现并不完全反映美国经济的实际增长，但从中可以看出美国在科技领域具备一定优势。未来，全球科技领域的发展预计将以中国和美国为主导。

　　CHINA FUND NEWS: Europe has benefited from the weakening of U.S. exceptionalism. Do you think this trend is sustainable?

　　Monica DEFEND: We need to distinguish between economic exceptionalism and technological exceptionalism. The performance of the S&P 500 does not fully align with U.S. economic growth. Its strong performance shows that the U.S. still maintains technological exceptionalism. Looking ahead, the global tech sector will be primarily led by the U.S. and China.

　　中国基金报：随着时间的推移，削弱美国资产中心化的需求是否正在上升？

　　Monica DEFEND：是的，这种需求正在明显增强。去美元化是一个复杂漫长的过程，但我们可以观察到，美元在全球投资组合中的核心地位正在逐步减弱，美国国债的主导作用也在减退。在这一转变中，欧洲自然是受益地区之一。然而，要真正提升欧洲在全球资产配置中的影响力，关键在于资本市场联盟和银行联盟的推进，这有助于打造更加广阔和深厚的市场基础——这是当前美国的突出优势。一旦欧洲在这方面取得突破，便有望跻身前沿。

　　CHINA FUND NEWS: Over time, is the demand to reduce U.S.-centric asset allocation increasing?

　　Monica DEFEND: Yes, this demand is clearly rising. De-dollarization is a multiplicator process that spans decades, but we are already seeing a decline in the dollar‘s central role in portfolio allocation and the waning core status of U.S. Treasuries. Europe naturally benefits from this shift. To truly enhance Europe’s importance in portfolio allocation, progress in capital market and banking union is key, as they would create larger and deeper markets—a U.S. advantage. Once Europe achieves this, it could occupy a leading position.

　　中国基金报：外国资本回流中国市场情况如何？

　　Monica DEFEND：地缘政治和时间因素在一定程度上可能影响外资流入中国的速度。但外资布局中国是长期趋势。目前，中国房地产行业的结构性失衡正在逐步修正，从投资驱动向消费驱动的增长模式也在稳步推进。中国的人工智能革命具有战略意义，相关发展有望带来长期回报。中国积极推动人工智能惠及广大民众，这一点值得高度肯定。

　　CHINA FUND NEWS: How is foreign capital returning to the Chinese market?

　　Monica DEFEND: Geopolitical and time factors may affect foreign capital inflows to China some extent. However foreign investment in China is a long-term trend. Currently, China‘s real estate sector is gradually correcting imbalances, and the shift from investment-driven to consumption-driven growth is also a gradual process. The AI revolution in China carries strategic significance and will generate long-term returns. China’s commitment to developing AI for the benefit of ordinary people is commendable.

　　中国基金报：2025年剩余时间及2026年的主要风险是什么？

　　Monica DEFEND：主要面临三大风险：1) 通胀、2) 流动性3) 美联储独立性。首先，通胀压力可能会延续至2026年。其次，当前市场之所以处于“Goldilocks”般的环境之中，关键在于流动性充裕；一旦流动性收紧，市场格局必然发生变化。此外，美联储的独立性不仅关乎通胀调控，更关系到其机构信誉。与此同时，地缘政治仍是长期风险。金融市场通常以商业逻辑看待地缘政治，我们需权衡是直接承担风险还是采取对冲措施。但需要强调的是，地缘政治对社会及全人类的影响远超金融市场的范畴。

　　CHINA FUND NEWS: What do you see as the main risks for the remainder of 2025 and 2026?

　　Monica DEFEND: There are three major risks: inflation, liquidity, and the risk to the Fed‘s independence. Inflation concerns may persist into 2026. Ample liquidity has kept markets in a "Goldilocks" environment, but if liquidity dries up, market dynamics will shift. The Fed’s independence is crucial for inflation control and institutional credibility. Additionally, geopolitical risks remain a long-term factor. Financial markets approach geopolitics through a business lens—we must decide whether to bear the risk or hedge it. However, the impact of geopolitics on society and humanity is obviously much broader.